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Scott Pilgrim Hits Today – But Tracking Is Down

Since the redistribution of Nielsen tracking details from person to person was severely curtailed earlier this year, it's harder for some to get an angle on just how movies are going to open in the States. But information longs to be free…

One common conversation at San Diego Comic Con was over just how well Scott Pilgrim Vs The World would do when it was, well, versus the world. Because at Con, it was the star. My hotel was covered in it. I picked up the final volume and dove into it every second I could get. And the Scott Pilgrim parties, queues and crowds were the talk of the show.

But that's us. What about… them? The "not we"? Kick-Ass was mentioned quite a lot – that was expected to get a $30 million opener, and it came far short, slinking into first place through some dodgy statistics. Now, that film was in no way a flop, it made a stack of cash, but more was expected of it. And now here comes Scott Pilgrim with a much bigger budget ( The whispers I've been hearing indicate that the film
had a production cost up to $70 million) and, after Kick Ass and The Losers, some fear it could kill the more esoteric comic-based movie. Brendon Connelly's just seen it, and seemed pretty pleased on the phone, we'll read about that later I'm sure. But the wide world audience…?

Now my wife loves Edgar Wright's Spaced, Shaun Of The Dead and Hot Fuzz. But seeing the trailer to Scott Pilgrim vs The World made her less likely to see the movie. And there's evidence of that happening wider, Nielsen tracking reports leaking that intention to see the film amongst the female audience is actually dropping as they are exposed to more marketing. The more they see and hear about it, the less likely they are to want to go. And as we learnt with Kick Ass, that female audience is more likely to make the decision in a date movie scenario, which is why Date Night did better than Kick Ass on the previous weekend, despite having similar tracking statistics if you didn't take gender into account.

From the amount of marketing spent and the press attention gathered, this should be a $30 million opener, like Kick Ass was meant to be. Tracking indicates it won't. It may fall well short into the same sub $20 million bracket. Well in, if tracking trends continue. And as, it opens with macho block buster The Expendables, it is likely to get squashed. Expendables has much greater awareness across the demographics. And while it still skews male, it still has a sizable female intent to see. There are after all, muscles. Something Scott Pilgrim lack a little.

There is of course the international market. However, as terrible as it is, The Expendables is going to stomp all over that as well, with it's macho arms, cigars in teeth and semi-automatic weaponry. In fact there's never been a film which has "intended for the international market" written over it in as big a black marker pen as this one. Contrast that with a fey computer game/comic/music self-deprecatory whining movie? No.

But there is one thing. One hope to pin all your other hopes on. It is that Scott Pilgrim Vs The World is a very good movie indeed. And the hope is, and why there were just so many screenings at San Diego to thousands of people who would have happily paid their $15, is that they all will go back to their own communities and sub cultures across America and tell people. Drag them screaming into the cinema (just as I am going to do with my wife).

But that's not an opening weekend screening strategy however. That' a second weekend strategy. And if the film doesn't well that first week, cinema owners start pulling cinema screens and giving them to The Expendables. So you'll get full screens the next week for Scott Pilgrim – but less of them. It will suddenly be running a losing race.

Scott Pilgrim will make money of course. Lot of money. It will be seen by people who love it a lot of times, it is terribly licensable and I can see Scott Pilgrim clothing selling for a long time, and DVD and Blu Ray sales should be through the roof, fuelled by some very innovative Edgar Wright extras. But it won't make its money straight away. And someone somewhere is going to pick up a copy of the comic, wave it around and say "what do you expect, if you base a blockbuster movie on some cheap black-and-white indie filth."

At which point I will kill them.

Scott Pilgrim Vs The World opens today in the USA. Go do your duty. Don't let the world win.

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